Graduation Rates by State: Where High School Completion Is Improving—and Slipping

A state graduation-rate ranking sounds straightforward.

State A graduates 93%.

State B graduates 82%.

State A looks better.

Before you draw that conclusion, check the measure.

High school graduation data include more than one federal statistic, and they are not interchangeable.

The Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate (ACGR) follows a cohort of first-time ninth-graders and measures the share graduating with a regular diploma within four years, adjusted for students who transfer in or out.

The Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR) is an estimate based on enrollment counts and diplomas awarded.

For school accountability, ACGR is usually the more direct measure of a graduating cohort.

For long historical state comparisons, AFGR is also widely reported.

That distinction matters because NCES’s newest Digest table currently reports 2023–24 AFGR, including a U.S. estimate of 89.0%, while the commonly cited NCES state ACGR report uses different years and methodology.

So do not build one giant graduation table from whichever number is easiest to find.

The opportunity is to make the comparison clearer than a ranking.

ACGR: the graduation rate most parents mean

ACGR starts with a group of first-time ninth-graders.

The cohort is adjusted as students:

• transfer in;
• transfer out;
• emigrate;
• die.

Then the measure counts how many receive a regular high school diploma within four years.

That makes it more intuitive than an estimate based only on aggregate grade enrollment.

If a district reports an ACGR of 90%, roughly 90% of the adjusted cohort graduated on time with a regular diploma under the measure’s rules.

AFGR: useful, but different

AFGR estimates a graduation rate from:

• enrollment in grades 8, 9 and 10;
• diplomas awarded four years later.

NCES uses it for long historical series.

The latest NCES Digest table reports U.S. AFGR rising from 87.4% in 2022–23 to 89.0% in 2023–24.

That does not mean the national ACGR is 89.0%.

Different measures.

This article should make that distinction visually obvious.

Why state comparisons are useful

States differ on:

• graduation requirements;
• course credits;
• assessments;
• accountability;
• diploma pathways;
• funding;
• student populations.

A state rate gives you broad context.

It can reveal:

• long-term improvement;
• unusual declines;
• policy shifts.

But it should not be the final decision tool for a family.

Trend matters more than rank

Imagine:

State A: 91%, down from 94%.

State B: 87%, up from 80%.

If your only question is current completion, A is higher.

If you are interested in direction, B is more interesting.

This is why SchoolReality’s broader trend philosophy belongs here.

Show:

latest rate + five-year change

instead of only rank.

District variation inside states can be huge

A state at 90% can contain districts at:

• 98%;
• 90%;
• 78%.

The state rate tells you nothing about the specific district until you drill down.

For home buyers, district graduation trend is much more useful.

Read High School Graduation Rates: How to Compare School Districts Fairly.

Check subgroup graduation

An overall 95% rate can hide large differences.

Look for:

• students with disabilities;
• English learners;
• economically disadvantaged students;
• racial/ethnic groups;
• homeless students where reported.

Ask:

Are the gaps narrowing?

A district can improve overall while one group’s graduation rate stays flat.

Read Achievement Gaps in Schools and Special Education Outcomes.

Graduation vs dropout

They are related.

They are not exact opposites.

Some students:

• take longer than four years;
• transfer;
• receive alternative credentials;
• remain enrolled.

So:

100% – graduation rate

is not automatically the dropout rate.

If you are worried about completion, check both.

Graduation requirements can change

A state can change:

• required credits;
• assessments;
• diploma options.

That can change rates.

A trend break around a major policy change should be labeled.

SchoolReality does not draw a smooth “performance” line without context if the underlying rules changed materially.

COVID-era cohorts need careful reading

Students graduating in the early 2020s experienced:

• remote learning;
• attendance disruption;
• grading changes;
• recovery programs.

A jump or dip around those years should not automatically be interpreted as a permanent trend.

Use pre-pandemic and post-pandemic comparisons.

Graduation and chronic absenteeism

Attendance problems in earlier grades can affect the path to graduation.

A district with high chronic absence may later struggle with:

• credit completion;
• course failure;
• dropout.

Do not claim chronic absence caused the graduation rate from a simple correlation.

But pair the metrics.

Use SchoolReality’s attendance explorer.

If chronic absence is falling now, that may be an encouraging leading indicator even before graduation data catch up.

Graduation and course access

Students need access to the courses required to graduate.

They may also benefit from:

• credit recovery;
• dual enrollment;
• career programs;
• tutoring.

A district with a high graduation rate but limited advanced opportunity is different from one with both.

Read Dual Enrollment Programs and Opportunity Gap in Education.

Graduation and special education

Students with disabilities deserve a separate graduation trend.

Ask:

• regular diploma rate;
• dropout;
• alternate credentials;
• transition.

Do not treat alternative outcomes as interchangeable with regular-diploma graduation.

Use state IDEA data for the details.

A state trend table that is actually useful

Do not rank ACGR and AFGR together.

Filter by measure.

Best graduation rates: avoid the victory-lap article

A list of the top states would be easy.

It would not be very useful.

Instead, if a state has a high rate, ask:

• Is it stable?
• Are subgroup gaps small?
• Are diploma requirements comparable?
• Are district rates consistent?

“Best” should lead to another question.

How to research a state you are considering

Step 1

Find the state’s latest ACGR.

Step 2

Check the multi-year direction.

Step 3

Find your possible districts.

Step 4

Compare district graduation and subgroup gaps.

Step 5

Check chronic absence and course access.

Step 6

Read the current state/district graduation requirements.

This turns the state ranking into a family decision.

A note on the newest numbers

NCES currently publishes a 2023–24 AFGR state table in the 2025 Digest.

This is useful for recent state completion trends.

The ACGR data used for federal accountability may appear in different federal/state releases and time frames.

SchoolReality helps parents never silently substitute AFGR for ACGR just because the latest year is newer.

Label the measure.

Questions to ask a high school district

1. What is the latest four-year ACGR?
2. How has it changed over five cohorts?
3. Which student groups have the lowest graduation rates?
4. How large are the gaps?
5. What is the dropout rate?
6. What share graduates in five years if they do not graduate in four?
7. Which courses have the highest failure rates?
8. How many students use credit recovery?
9. Is chronic absenteeism improving?
10. What graduation trend worries the district most?

These tell you far more than state rank.

ACGR and AFGR: a simple example

Imagine a high school system with 10,000 first-time ninth-graders.

Four years later, after adjusting for transfers, 9,000 students in that cohort receive regular diplomas.

The ACGR is about 90%.

AFGR does not follow those exact individual students.

It estimates the entering class using aggregate enrollment and compares that estimate with later diploma counts.

Both measures can be useful.

But the parent reading a state accountability report usually wants the cohort measure.

That is why SchoolReality helps parents make ACGR the main accountability view when comparable data are available.

Why state graduation rules complicate comparisons

States can differ on:

• required credits;
• exams;
• diploma pathways;
• alternative credentials;
• course requirements.

The federal ACGR improves comparability by using a common cohort concept, but the education systems behind the rates are still different.

A 92% rate in one state and 89% in another should not be treated like a three-point race with identical conditions.

Use the difference as context.

Then go to the district.

Look for five-year graduation change

One cohort can be unusual.

A better trend view uses several graduating classes.

Write:

• 2020;
• 2021;
• 2022;
• 2023;
• latest.

Then note policy or pandemic disruptions.

A district that moves:

82 → 84 → 87 → 89 → 91

has a clearer pattern than one that jumps 87 → 92 in one year.

Look at five-year graduation, not only four-year

Some students need more time.

If the state publishes a five-year extended cohort rate, it can show whether students who miss the four-year mark are eventually finishing.

This is especially useful when comparing:

• students with disabilities;
• English learners;
• students who changed schools.

Do not use the extended rate to hide a weak four-year rate.

Use both.

Check credential type

A “completion” number may include credentials that are not the same as a regular diploma.

When using IDEA or state special education data, be especially careful.

Ask:

• regular diploma?
• alternate diploma?
• certificate?
• still enrolled?

Definitions matter.

Graduation can improve while academic readiness does not

A higher graduation rate is good news if more students earn meaningful diplomas.

But it does not automatically tell you:

• math readiness;
• reading readiness;
• college readiness;
• career preparation.

Pair graduation with:

• state assessments;
• course completion;
• AP/IB/dual enrollment;
• college-going where available.

SchoolReality does not use graduation as the only high-school outcome.

Compare high schools inside the district

Large districts can have huge school-level differences.

The district graduation rate may be 88%.

Individual schools may range from the 70s to the high 90s.

If you are choosing a home or transfer school, get the school-level cohort rate.

Then ask whether the school has:

• credit recovery;
• stable counselors;
• attendance support;
• advanced programs.

Graduation trends can lag current improvements

A ninth-grade attendance initiative started this year may not show up in graduation for several years.

That is why parents should combine:

lagging outcomes such as graduation

with

faster indicators such as attendance, course failure and staffing.

A district can be improving before the graduation trend catches up.

The reverse can happen too. That extra context is worth preserving when the newest graduation figure still describes an older student cohort.

What to carry into your comparison

Graduation rates by state are useful.

A ranking alone is not.

First ask:

Which graduation measure?

Then:

What direction?

Then:

How much variation exists between districts and student groups?

The state tells you the broad context.

The district tells you much more about the school system your child will actually enter.

Sources and further reading

• NCES: High School Graduation Rates
• NCES: AFGR by State, through 2023–24
• U.S. Department of Education: ED Data Express
• SchoolReality: Attendance
• SchoolReality: Academic Progress